Stock futures pointed to a slightly higher open Friday morning as the major indexes looked to recuperate some recent declines.
Contracts on the Dow gained 50 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were also poised to open modestly higher. A day earlier, the three major indexes ended lower, and the Dow posted its first drop in four trading days. The S&P 500 fell for a third straight day for its longest losing streak since December, but still hovered less than 1% from its recent all-time high after a rally earlier in the month. The Nasdaq underperformed, as investors extended a rotation into cyclical stocks and away from some high-growth tech names.
“While performance breadth has increased, our work shows that the dispersion of individual stock returns has been on the rise and the direction and movement among S&P 500 stocks have become more independent,” BMO Capital Markets strategist Brian Belski wrote in a note Thursday. “This combination of rising performance dispersion and falling intra-stock performance sets up an environment that is conducive for potential alpha generation and one that should favor stock selection, in our view.”
Though the major equity indexes have drifted lower these past few sessions, they have still held near record levels as optimism over a strong economic recovery continues to fuel a risk-on mood. Treasury yields have also climbed over these past several weeks amid optimism over a firming economic backdrop, and held near a one-year high of 1.31%.
Developments around the virus have been encouraging after a post-holiday spike. New COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have abated in recent weeks, and the number of new cases per day has averaged 77,665 over the past week, for a drop of 43% from the average of the two weeks prior, according to New York Times data. And an analysis from Bloomberg on Thursday showed that the U.S. vaccine supply is poised to double from the current rate of 10 million to 15 million doses per week within the next few weeks, allowing more shots to be given in the near-term.
While some economic data have already showed signs of a rebound in many areas of the economy, other data disappointments have underscored the nonlinear nature of the economic recovery. New jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a one-month high last week, as virus-related pressure on the labor market weighed more heavily than anticipated even after some improving trends in new infections. And while retail sales handily topped expectations at the start of this year, some economists have warned that a pullback may occur in February due to extreme weather and diminishing benefits from stimulus checks distributed earlier this year.
8:52 a.m. ET: Fourth-quarter earnings results have blown past estimates, topping expectations by an average of 16.6%: Credit Suisse
S&P 500 companies have so far delivered fourth-quarter earnings results that handily topped estimates, in a testament to the faster-than-expected rebound in corporate profitability as companies stringently cut costs during the pandemic.
Companies comprising 88.8% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization reported fourth-quarter results as of Friday morning, according to an analysis from Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub. Of these, 78% of companies have topped their projections and earnings have topped expectations by 16.6% in aggregate.
Heading into fourth-quarter earnings season, consensus analysts were expecting profits to decline on a year-over-year basis for a fourth consecutive quarter. However, earnings per share on now instead tracking toward a rise of 3.6%. And excluding cyclical companies hardest hit by the pandemic, earnings per share on tracking toward an impressive 15.2% growth rate, Golub added.
But as Yahoo Finance has written about previously, companies that beat expectations haven’t been rewarded for exceeding expectations. This earnings season, companies that have topped both revenue and EPS expectations have underperformed the market by an average of 0.4%, versus a historical average outperformance of 1.5%, Golub said.
7:25 a.m. ET Friday: Stock futures point to a slightly higher open
Here’s where markets were trading ahead of the opening bell:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,920.25, up 10.75 points or 0.27%
Dow futures (YM=F): 31,481.00, up 50 points or 0.16%
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 13,687.75, up 54.75 points or 0.4%
Crude (CL=F): -$1.29 (-2.13%) to $59.23 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): -$6.70 (-0.38%) to $1,768.30 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +2.2 bps to yield 1.309%
6:01 p.m. ET Thursday: Stock futures trade slightly higher
Here’s where markets were trading Thursday evening as the overnight session kicked off:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,911.25, up 1.75 points or 0.04%
Dow futures (YM=F): 31,448.00, up 17 points or 0.05%
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 13,645.5, up 12.5 points or 0.09%
Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck
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