The identity of the bettor, who placed the wager on October 29, is not known. They would win a £540,000 ($696,170) profit on top of getting the original £1 million wager returned.
The £1 million wager is tied for the third-largest bet in Betfair’s history, behind £1.1 million bet on tennis player Rafael Nadal in the 2010 French Open, and slightly more than £1 million bet on Floyd Mayweather Jr. in his 2017 match against Conor McGregor.
The bet could be a good omen for Biden: The 10 largest bets in Betfair’s history before now, all on sporting events, have been winners.
“A tiny difference in the odds will make a big difference in the returns of the big-money bettors,” he said. Because of that, those bettors might wait until they’re convinced they can get the best possible odds on their bets.
The bets are flowing into Betfair at a record pace, with £274 million, or $353 million, having been recorded by Monday morning. And it takes several days for a bet that has been made to show up in the data, which is why the October 29 bet has only now become known. So the total wagering on the vote is likely well above that level.
The largest political bet ever made on Betfair Exchange was a £555,000 bet made on Trump in 2016 that came in at about 12:30 am ET, the day after the election, after most of the US polls had closed, but before he was declared a winner.
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